AKIPRESS.COM - A stronger contraction of the Russian economy could result in lower growth and remittances, and a return of migrant workers, according to the IMF staff concluding statement of the 2022 Article IV Consultation Mission.

The resulting reduction in disposable incomes combined with high inflation, if persistent, could raise already elevated poverty.

Without additional fiscal space and concessional financing, large new infrastructure projects such as the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway and Kambarata-1 hydropower plant would further increase public debt.

These risks could be compounded by escalation of regional conflicts, the reemergence of the pandemic, shortages of power supply due to the ageing electricity infrastructure or a sustained reduction in gold prices.

On the upside, a new wave of immigration from Russia could improve the short-term growth outlook, IMF said.