AKIPRESS.COM - Growth in the Central Asian region is projected to moderate to an upwardly revised 3.2 percent in 2018 and edge down to 3.1 percent in 2019, as a modest recovery among commodity exporting economies is only partially offset by a slowdown among commodity importers, according to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects June 2018.
In Turkey, growth is forecast to slow to 4.5 percent in 2018 and to 4.0 percent in 2019, as delays in fiscal consolidation and the extension of the credit support program temper an anticipated slowdown following the strong recovery last year.
Growth in Russia is anticipated to hold steady at a 1.5 percent rate this year and accelerate to 1.8 percent next year as the effects of rising oil prices and monetary policy easing are offset by oil production cuts and uncertainty around economic sanctions. Economic activity in Poland is expected to advance by an upwardly revised 4.2 percent in 2018 and decelerate to 3.7 percent next year.
Growth in Ukraine is forecast to pick up to 3.5 percent in 2018 and 4 percent in 2019, assuming an easing of geopolitical tensions and progress on structural reforms. Azerbaijan is anticipated to grow an upwardly revised 1.8 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year, mainly in response to fiscal stimulus measures supported by higher oil prices.
Kazakhstan is expected to moderate to a 3.7 percent rate of expansion this year and 3.3 percent growth next year as the effect of the opening of the Kashagan oil field fades.Since the region is open to trade and is integrated into global supply chains, it would be vulnerable to a rise in global protectionism.