AKIPRESS.COM - Tajikistan's real GDP is projected at 6.0 percent in 2021 and moderate in the medium term, according to the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Economic Update.
The economic outlook hinges on the pace of the vaccination rollout and the resilien-cy of the global economy.
The government expects new deliveries of vaccines in the remainder of 2021 and next year through donations and self-procurement.
Remittances and foreign investment are projected to rise, reflecting a better growth outlook in Russia and China.
Commodity and food prices will exert upward price pressure. Poverty is projected to fall in 2021, thanks to economic recovery and improvements in household income.
The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to about 2–2.5 percent of GDP in the medium term.
The most pressure on the state budget is likely to come from COVID-19-related spending on healthcare, social protection, and development projects in infrastructure, particularly energy and transport.
There are substantial risks to the outlook.
Growth prospects are affected by possible new flareups of COVID-19, the precarious situation in neighboring Afghanistan, and the unresolved border dispute with the Kyrgyz Republic.
Top domestic challenges include inefficient SOEs, insufficient development of the private sector, and weak institutional capacity. The newly developed tax code is expected to establish a better dialogue between the state and the private sector in the medium term.