AKIPRESS.COM - The speed of recovery makes Uzbekistan the fastest growing economy in Central Asia, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, published today.

The Bank is expecting Uzbekistan’s GDP to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2021 and 6.0 per cent in 2022. Growth is supported by a remittances-led surge in private consumption along with increased investment in infrastructure, much of which has been financed through external borrowing. The forecast may be subject to further revisions because of uncertainties related to Covid-19, potential resumption of international tourism, and the geopolitical situation in Central Asia.

According to the report, services expanded by 19.5 per cent year-on-year, industrial output by 9 per cent, and agriculture by 4.2 per cent. Remittances from Russia grew by 35 per cent year-on-year in US dollar terms in the first eight months of 2021. Credit growth accelerated to 22 per cent in June 2021 in real terms compared to 12 per cent a year ago, reflecting stronger economic activity. Despite expansionary measures, inflation eased from 11.1 per cent year-on-year in December 2020 to 10.8 per cent year-on-year in October 2021.

Overall, the EBRD raised its forecast for all its regions for 2021 to 5.5 per cent. While this represents an upward revision of 1.3 percentage points over its June forecast following a strong performance in the first half of the year, the Bank warns of serious threats ahead.